India’s economic slowdown is showing some signs of bottoming out, with six of the sixteen high-frequency indicators in green (above the five-year average trend) as of December, according to the latest edition of the Mint Macro Tracker. In November, only three indicators were in green.
The tracker, which was launched in October last year, provides a monthly state-of-the-economy report based on trends across the 16 indicators. A majority of the indicators still continued to be in the red (below the five year average trend). In December, nine indicators were in red, while one maintained trend. This is a deterioration compared to last year when seven indicators were in red and three maintained trend. This is the seventh month in a row when half or more of the 16 indicators were in red.
The consumer economy scorecard saw a marginal improvement with one indicator (tractor-sales growth) turning amber in December. For the past ten months, all four indicators of the consumer economy – passenger vehicle sales, tractor sales, broadband subscriber base, and air passenger growth – had been flashing red.
Domestic air passenger growth also improved in December, turning positive after 10 months but it remained below the five-year average trend. Passenger vehicle sales growth and broadband subscriber growth also remain in red, showing little signs of improvement. Passenger vehicle sales declined 13% on year – contracting for the eleventh straight month in December, while broadband subscriber growth at 29% was way below the five-year average of 56%.