New Delhi: Monsoon rains in India are likely to be unaffected by the El Nino weather pattern, which is likely to set in only after the four-month rainy season ends in September, a leading government weather official said on Thursday.
Monsoon season delivers about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is key to the success of the farm sector, which accounts for about 15% of India’s $2 trillion economy but sustains nearly two thirds of the country’s 1.3 billion people.
Plentiful monsoon rains could therefore lift farm and wider economic growth, potentially tempting Modi to bring forward general elections due May 2019.
“It’s a little early to talk about the monsoon season, but there are indications that the current La Nina condition will turn into a neutral phase towards the end of the season,” said Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, the leading scientist at India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, which oversees the country’s meteorological department.
A private US-based weather forecaster had said this month that India’s monsoon rains were expected to be slightly below average this year.
