New Delhi: In what is set to help authorities to improve preparedness ahead of extreme weather events, especially heavy rainfall, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stepped up its weather forecasting system with two very high resolution global ensemble prediction systems (EPS).
The prediction system would generate operational ten-day probabilistic weather forecasts with an improved resolution of 12km grid range across India, than the existing 24km grid scale.
“The current deterministic models are not much helpful if we have to issue a warning for extreme weather event for small spatial scale. There will be large error. But EPS will allow us to quantify the uncertainty in the weather forecast for a relatively smaller area and enhance weather information being provided by the current models with accuracy and higher confidence level,” said Dr K.J. Ramesh, Director General Meteorology (DGM), IMD highlighting that it would help in protecting life and property in case of extreme weather events, especially for cities like Mumbai, Chennai which are battered by heavy rains by giving them more time to prepare.
The new EPS system developed by scientists from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida and IMD is being considered among the best weather prediction system for short-medium range probabilistic weather forecasts.
Built at an overall cost of Rs450 crore while using the fastest computers, the ensemble forecast model is second best in the world after European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) which has ensemble model at a higher resolution of 9km, said M. Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
Elaborating on its applications, Rajeevan said, “It will boost our block-level forecast for farmers, where current deterministic models do not help. For instance, if we say, that a certain block will witness 15 cm rainfall in next five days. Instead of that, if we can say that there is 60 per cent probability of this block receiving 10 cm rainfall on fifth day, then that information will be very useful for farmers, people, policy makers to be better prepared,” said M Rajeevan, Secy, MoES.
The probabilistic forecasts will also be very useful for various sectors of the economy including agriculture, water resources, tourism and renewable energy, highlighted officials.
Talking about the steps being taken after the weather department came under scanner for its forecast on thunderstorms which ravaged several states and lead to death of over 200 persons, officials said the MoES was working to implement a more effective mechanism for dissemination of weather forecasts and groups have been formed to research on thunderstorms.
“Thunderstorms are a general phenomenon and north-eastern states, south peninsula witness it often. But, its is right, that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including thunder-storms is increasing and its happening due to climate change. There have been three major incidents of thunderstorms in first two weeks of May,” said IMD DGM, Dr Ramesh.
With timely dissemination of weather information a key issue, the officials said the weather department is timely sharing information with state departments and National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
